Although I don't doubt some shifts are taking place, I'd be interested in knowing the dot product of party affiliation and propensity to vote. For example, if the percentage of young GOP members has dropped by 30%, perhaps those that are still members are much more likely to vote, while those that have left the party are unlikely to vote. In the end this could cancel out or even be a good thing for the GOP.
Well probably not, but it might mitigate the 30% drop.
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2007/04/the_young_and_t.html
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